Falling Down the Market Rabbit Hole（投资的十大误区）

Falling Down the Market Rabbit Hole

Money messes with our heads.

Baffled by today's stock and bond markets? Join the crowd. Unfortunately, investing -- and managing money generally -- is profoundly counterintuitive.

Here are 10 reasons to stare at the financial world, and slowly scratch our heads.

1. If investors believe something will happen, it probably won't. I often hear folks comment that 'everybody knows the dollar will collapse' or 'everybody knows stocks will soar when the Fed next cuts rates.' But if everybody 'knows' something will happen, presumably some have bought and sold in anticipation and thus maybe we have already seen the predicted market reaction.

2. We can win on average -- and suffer mightily. According to Morningstar's Ibbotson Associates, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has clocked an average 10.4% a year since 1925. But even if we earn that average, we could still end up with lousy results -- if the sequence of returns goes against us.

The classic example: Seniors can find themselves in financial trouble if they retire during a market like today's. Poor stock and bond performance, coupled with their own need for income, can quickly devastate their portfolio's value. Indeed, because they had to cash out investments at low prices, their wealth may never fully recover, even if the markets do.

3. Dazzling winners mean legions of losers. We hear constantly about hot stocks, star mutual-fund managers and soaring hedge funds, and all this happy talk makes winning seem easy.

Trouble is, if some stocks and funds are whipping the market averages, others are inevitably trailing behind. In fact, the winners often perform so well that they give a big boost to the market indexes, leaving most investments with market-lagging results. The implication: If we try to pick the next big winner, we will probably lose -- and we could lose badly.

4. Nothing recedes like success. Of course, there's no need to pick our own winners. We could just hop on today's highflying investments, such as gold stocks, commodities and inflation-indexed Treasury bonds. The problem: Winning often contains the seeds of its own destruction.

Hot market sectors become richly valued, foreshadowing lower returns. Fast-growing companies are quickly beset by new business competitors. Stellar stock funds garner a heap of assets, making the managers' job more difficult. Winning investment strategies attract return-hungry investors, and soon there's too much money pursuing too few opportunities.

5. Trying to preserve principal can wreck it. There are two reasons. First, if we are determined to stick with bonds and other investments that promise return of principal, we may start hunting for those that pay the highest income. That reach for yield can leave us owning troubled securities that can't make their interest payments, as bond investors are now discovering.

Second, as we strive to preserve principal, we will likely ignore inflation. Result? We may maintain our money's value in nominal terms -- and lose maybe 3% a year to inflation.

6. Hard work hurts. After the slew of counterintuitive notions catalogued above, readers might be inclined to throw up their hands in despair and do nothing. And that can be a smart move.

Working hard at investing often backfires. Folks diligently research stocks and mutual funds, hoping to earn market-beating gains. But while those gains aren't guaranteed, all the activity may lead to high trading costs and steep tax bills, thus hurting returns.

7. We don't get what we pay for. If we buy an expensive computer or car, we expect a high-performance product. If we pay a lot for investment advice or for our mutual funds, we increase the odds of lackluster results.

8. Risky investments reduce risk. As investors have discovered over the past year, investments like emerging-market stocks, real-estate investment trusts and high-yield junk bonds can post horrifying short-term losses.

But if we add small quantities of these investments to a portfolio of blue-chip U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds, we can lower the portfolio's overall risk level. The reason: Sometimes these risky investments fare well when mainstream investments are suffering.

9. Tax deductions are money losers. No doubt many taxpayers are chortling over the taxes they're avoiding because of mortgage interest, charitable contributions and other items on their 2007 federal tax return's Schedule A.

But in truth, such tax deductions are no bargain. If a couple is in the 25% federal income-tax bracket and they fork over $1 in mortgage interest, they will likely save 25 cents in taxes -- which means they're 75 cents poorer.

10. Everything we want will disappoint. We spend our lives striving for bigger homes, new cars and another pay raise. Yet, within a few months of achieving our latest dream, the thrill is gone and we're pursuing something else.

It's hard to escape this emotional roller coaster. But if we keep it in mind, maybe we'll have greater appreciation for what we already have, maybe we won't be quite so devastated when we fail to get that next pay raise -- and maybe acquiring that new car will seem a little less important.

俗

话说的好，利令智昏。

你对当下的股市和债市感到困惑不解吗？那么你可找到组织了。不幸的是，投资──以及广义上的理财──是不能跟着感觉走的。

看了下面列出的十条理由，你就知道为什么你该紧盯着金融界、并仔细思考了。

1. 投资者们相信会发生的事很可能不会成真。我经常听到人们这样说，“人人都知道美元会崩盘”或是“人人都知道美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)下次降息的时候，股市会大涨”。不过，如果人人都“知道”要发生什么事情，那么很可能有人已经预见到了，并且已经买进或是卖出，所以我们看到的可能已经是市场做出的反应了。

2. 我们赚的可能只是和平均水平不相上下，但我们亏的可能相当惨重。根据晨星公司(Morningstar Inc.)旗下Ibbotson Associates的数据，1925年以来标准普尔500指数年平均涨幅为10.4%，尽管我们有望赚到个“平均数”，但如果风向不对的话，最终我们仍可能会败得一塌糊涂。

经典的例子就是：如果老年人在市场像现在一样大跌的时候退休，那么他们可能会陷入财务困境。股市和债市低迷，再加上老年人对收入的需求，他们的投资组合会因此迅速贬值。确实如此，因为他们不得不以低价兑现股票和债券，所以他们手中的财富可能永远无法完全恢复，即便市场已重现生机。

3. 每个投资成功的人背后都有不计其数失败者。我们经常听到热门股、明星级共同基金经理和大幅上涨的对冲基金，所有这些令人愉快的谈论都让投资获利看起来似乎易如反掌。

题是，如果有些股票和基金的涨幅大于市场平均水平，那么肯定有低于平均水平的。实际上，跑赢大盘的个股常常表现非常好，以致于大幅提振了市场指数，而大部分投资获得的收益都低于市场平均水平。这就意味着，尽管我们想挑选下一只大幅上涨的个股，但仍有可能以失败告终，而且还是一败涂地。

4. 成功常常只是昙花一现。当然，我们无需选择自己的“明星股”。我们只需要顺应当前看涨的投资趋势就行，比如投资于黄金股市、大宗商品和通货膨胀保值国债。问题是，此时的成功有可能变成失败之母。

热门板块估值很高，预示着日后的收益很可能不怎么样。快速发展的公司很快就被新出现的竞争对手所包围。看好的股票基金获得了大量资产，使基金经理的工作难上加难。屡战屡胜的投资战略吸引了对回报如饥似渴的投资者，于是很快就会出现僧多粥少的局面。

5. 试图保本可能会最终颗粒无归。原因有二：首先，如果我们决定坚持投资于债券等承诺可以保本的产品，此时我们可能会去寻求那些收益最高的。这种对收益的一味追逐可能会令我们买进无法支付利息的问题证券，就像现在的债券投资者们一样。

其次，在追求保本的同时，很可能会忽视通货膨胀的影响。结果就是，我们可能只是保住了投资的面值，却因通货膨胀而每年损失3%。

6. 有劳不一定有获。在说了这么多不要凭感觉进行投资的注意事项之后，读者可能会绝望地两手一摊，什么也不做了。这或许是个明智之举。

勤勉于投资常常会产生反效果。人们认真地研究股票和共同基金，希望收益能跑赢大盘。不过，这些收益并不是万无一失的，而且此类投资可能会导致高额的交易成本和繁重的赋税，进而影响收益。

7. 不要在投资上期望会物有所值。如果我们买了一台很贵的电脑或是一辆车，我们倒是能指望产品性能出众。但倘若我们在投资咨询服务或是共同基金上花了很多钱，结果平平的可能性却会增加。

8. 高风险投资会使风险减少。正如投资者们在过去一年中所发现的一样，向新兴市场股票、房地产投资信托和高收益的垃圾债券等投资可能会在短期带来令人震惊的巨额损失。

不过，如果在包括蓝筹股和高质量债券在内的投资组合中加入少量这类投资，我们就能降低投资组合的整体风险水平。原因就是，有时在主流投资不佳的时候，这些高风险投资却会表现不错。

9. 税项减免并不会为你省钱。毫无疑问，很多纳税人都因能避税而偷笑，他们在2007年联邦退税表A中的抵押贷款利息、慈善捐赠和其他项目上可以获得税项减免。

不过事实是，获得这样的税项减免并不是得了便宜。如果一对夫妇应该缴纳最高25%的联邦收入所得税，而抵押贷款利息为1美元，那么他们很可能因为税项减免而省下0.25美元，不过还是缴纳了0.75美元的利息。

10. 激情终将散去。我们一辈子都在追求更大的房子、新车和再涨次工资。不过，梦想才实现几个月，兴奋劲就会褪去，我们又开始追求别的东西。

我们很难摆脱这种心理上的巨大落差。不过，如果牢记这点，或许就会更加珍惜现在所拥有的，或许不会因没能涨工资而那么失望，或许买辆新车看起来就不那么重要了。

（编者按：本文作者Jonathan Clements是《华尔街日报》个人理财专栏“Getting Going”的专栏作家）